FHTA Tourism Talanoa: Tourism’s Next Threat

Fiji Hotel and Tourism Association, 28 May 2026 – Preparedness, not panic, is the smarter response.

In tourism, we learn very quickly that what happens far beyond our shores can still find its way to our front desk, our kitchen, our marina, our farm supplier, our power bill, or our guest experience. A shift in aviation fuel prices, a conflict affecting freight routes, a global economic slowdown, or a change in travel sentiment can all turn up in Fiji’s visitor economy in one way or another.

That is why Fiji’s tourism industry has always had to keep one eye on global developments and the other firmly on local realities. While international events will always demand our attention, there is a signal closer to home that warrants careful monitoring. It calls for vigilance and preparation—not panic, not speculation, but measured and responsible focus.

There is growing global discussion about a possible strong El Niño event developing later this year and potentially continuing into early 2027. Some online commentary has already gone further, using terms such as “super El Niño”, often with more drama than evidence, requiring careful assessment.

The credible global climate agencies are certainly pointing towards a significant El Niño development. The World Meteorological Organization has indicated a rapid transition towards El Niño conditions, while the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has also reported a high likelihood of El Niño emerging and persisting into early next year.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has also noted significant warming in the tropical Pacific, while regional climate updates for the Pacific have flagged the possibility of a strong event. These are the sources we should be paying attention to, because they are based on climate modelling, ocean observations, atmospheric indicators and years of monitoring – not clicks, headlines or social media heat.

At the same time, the word “super” should not become the word that leads our planning. The World Meteorological Organization itself does not use “super El Niño” as an official operational classification, and NOAA has been clear that while El Niño is likely, the final strength of the event still carries uncertainty.

That distinction matters. For Fiji, El Niño can have real operational impact, particularly during the cool and dry season, when reduced rainfall can place pressure on water supply, agriculture, ecosystems, transport access, community services and tourism operations.

Fiji Met has previously explained that El Niño events can reduce rainfall across parts of the country, with impacts often felt more strongly in the drier zones. That is not new information for those who have lived and worked through past dry spells, but it is information worth bringing back to the front of our minds now.

Tourism is particularly exposed because it is a service industry that depends on reliable utilities, fresh produce, safe access, healthy reefs, comfortable conditions and community stability. A resort may be able to manage a dry week, but a prolonged dry period affects supply chains, landscaping, laundry, kitchens, pools, gardens, guest activities, staff communities and the small businesses that support the visitor economy.

But our small economy would be equally impacted and not insignificantly given our proclivity to have water interruptions at the slightest hint of less than expected rainfalls.

This is where the conversation needs to move beyond whether the event is called strong, very strong or “super”. The more useful question is whether tourism businesses are already reviewing their exposure to water security, heat stress, fire risk, marine conditions, food supply and business continuity.

Water is the obvious starting point. For hotels, resorts, restaurants, marine operators and activity providers, water availability is not just a back-of-house issue, because it directly affects hygiene, food preparation, laundry, landscaping, pools, cooling systems and the overall guest experience.

More broadly, when water systems are under pressure, the impact is shared across households, communities and businesses. Tourism cannot and should not view its needs in isolation from the communities that host it, because our workers, suppliers and guests all depend on the same basic services functioning properly through shared supplies.

The same applies to agriculture and food supply. A dry spell can affect local produce availability, quality and price, and that eventually flows through to kitchens, restaurants, menus, procurement teams and smaller operators who have less purchasing power.

We should also be paying close attention to heat and fire risk. Hotter and drier conditions can create safety concerns for staff and visitors, increase energy demand for cooling, raise fire risks in vulnerable areas, and place additional strain on communities already managing cost pressures.

Marine tourism also needs to be part of this conversation. Fiji’s reefs, dive sites, coastal ecosystems and marine activities are central to our visitor offering, and prolonged heat or climate stress can affect coral health, water quality and the reliability of some experiences.

We are not suggesting that people assume the worst. What we are recommending is that the industry use the coming months wisely—because preparation is always cheaper, calmer, and more effective than scrambling after the fact. Forward planning is not only good business practice; it is also an opportunity to encourage the public and other private sector entities to strengthen their own preparedness.

For larger properties, this may mean reviewing water storage, desalination capacity, supplier resilience, energy use, landscaping practices, emergency communications and guest advisories. For smaller operators, it may mean checking water backup arrangements, reviewing booking terms during weather-related disruptions, speaking with suppliers early, and making sure staff understand what to do if conditions worsen.

There is also a communications lesson here. In tourism, how we talk about risk matters almost as much as how we prepare for it, because careless messaging can damage confidence while silence can leave people underprepared.

We do not need to alarm visitors or the public. What we do need is responsible communication—grounded in reputable sources and practical guidance—so that operators, staff, communities, and travellers clearly understand what is being monitored and what sensible preparation entails. By focusing on facts, we can build confidence, encourage readiness, and ensure that both the industry and the wider community are equipped to respond effectively.

That means relying on Fiji Meteorological Service updates for local conditions, while also keeping an eye on reputable international and regional agencies such as the World Meteorological Organization, NOAA, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, NIWA and recognised Pacific climate services. It also means being cautious with pages that package scientific uncertainty into dramatic headlines, because weather and climate information should inform decisions, not inflame them.

This is especially important in Fiji, where a headline written for a global audience may not translate neatly into local impacts. El Niño can influence rainfall and temperature patterns, but the actual effect on Fiji depends on timing, strength, duration, local weather systems and how conditions interact across the region.

We are proposing disciplined preparation, better monitoring, practical business continuity planning and clear communication between operators, government agencies, utility providers, suppliers and communities – and will certainly be doing our part to create awareness and share information.

In a world where tourism must now watch multiple risks at the same time – global fuel volatility, changing travel patterns, labour constraints, freight costs, regulatory shifts and climate pressures have all becoming part of the normal operating environment now.

That does not make the industry more fragile. If anything, Fiji tourism has shown repeatedly that it is resilient, adaptive and capable of responding quickly when the right information is available early.

This earned badge of resilience has come with deep insights. If a strong El Niño does develop, the businesses that have checked their systems early, trained their teams, managed water carefully, spoken with suppliers and followed credible forecasts will be in a far better position than those who dismissed the early signals as online noise.

The challenge is balance – neither overhyping nor ignoring the risk. Fiji’s tourism industry must stay watchful, not out of fear of disaster, but because responsible preparation and fact-based communication are what safeguard confidence and on going resilience.
Fantasha Lockington – CEO, FHTA (Published in the Fiji Times on 28 May 2026)