The following are provided by the Fiji Meteorological Service: Check their website for any current warnings or alerts.
During August 2023, near normal or below normal rainfall is likely for the Fiji Group.
For August to October period, near normal or below normal rainfall is likely for the Fiji Group. There is little guidance provided for Rotuma, as there is almost equal chances of below normal, normal and above normal rainfall.
During November 2023 to January 2024, near normal or below normal rainfall is likely for the Fiji Group. There is little guidance provided for Rotuma, as there is almost equal chances of below normal, normal and above normal rainfall. However, a development of a tropical disturbance or depression, during this period, can result in normal or above normal rainfall.
For the August period, maximum temperature is likely to be below normal across the Western and Central Divisions, near normal for Northern and Eastern Divisions, while above normal temperature is likely at Rotuma. Minimum temperature is likely to be near normal across the Western, Central and Eastern Divisions, while above normal temperatures are likely across the Northern Division and also at Rotuma.
Maximum temperature is likely to be near normal over the Fiji Group during August to October 2023, while above normal temperature is likely at Rotuma. Minimum temperature is likely to be near normal across Western, Central and Eastern Divisions, while above normal temperatures are likely across the Northern Division and at Rotuma.
El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in a weak El Niño state.
The current El Niño is expected to gradually strengthen through to the December 2023 to February 2024 period.
READ FULL REPORT – FIJI CLIMATE OUTLOOK AUGUST 2023
· Weak El Niño conditions continue in the tropical Pacific Ocean.
· The current El Niño is expected to gradually strengthen through to the December 2023 to February 2024 period.
· Near normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are likely in the Fiji Waters during August to October 2023.
· The average position of the 29°C fisheries convergence zone is likely to be dis-placed south of its normal position, close to far north of Fiji’s EEZ, during the August to October 2023 period.
· The 4, 8 and 12 weeks coral bleaching outlooks are at ‘No Stress’ across the Fiji Waters.
· Sea level is likely to be near normal across most of Fiji’s EEZ during August to October 2023 period.
· The lowest astronomical tide of the year will be on 3rd August, both at Lautoka and Suva.
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Rainfall Status to May 2023:
· At 3-month timescale, Seriously Dry conditions exist for Udu Point, Taveuni, Vanuabalavu and parts of Nausori Area, Very Dry conditions exist for Nabouwalu, Savusavu, Labasa, Seaqaqa, Monasavu, RKS Lodoni, Koronivia, Nausori, Suva, Navua, Beqa, Levuka, Gau and parts of the southern Lau Group, while there is No Extreme conditions in place for the rest of the Fiji Group.
· At 6-month timescale, Seriously Wet conditions exist for Kadavu, Very Wet conditions exist for Vatulele, Moala and Ono-i-Lau, in the Lau Group, Seriously Dry conditions exist for northern Savusavu and southern parts of Taveuni, Very Dry conditions exist for Rotuma, Savusavu, the rest of Taveuni and parts of Vanuabalavu, while there is No Extreme conditions in place for the rest of the Fiji Group.
· At the 12-month timescale, Seriously Wet conditions exist for Kadavu, Very Wet conditions persists at Vatulele, parts of the Coral Coast, Nacocolevu and Ono-i-Lau, Seriously Dry conditions exist for Rotuma, Very Dry conditions exist for some parts of Taveuni, while there is No Extreme conditions in place for the rest of the Fiji Group.
Rainfall Outlook:
· From 8th to 21st June, there is a medium chance of Very Wet conditions across the Yasawa and Mamanuca Groups, northern and western half of Viti Levu, Nabouwalu, Savusavu and majority of the Lomaiviti Group.
· For June, there is high chance of Very Wet conditions for Rotuma and Koro Island. There is a medium chance of Very Wet conditions across most parts of Fiji.
· For June to August 2023, there is a medium chance of Very Wet conditions across most parts of Fiji.
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Status: El Niño Watch
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El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Status:
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· A weak El-Niño event continues to persist within the tropical Pacific Ocean.
· Sea surface temperatures are further likely to warm and remain above El Niño thresholds until at least the end of the year.
· The current El Niño is expected to gradually strengthen through to the December 2023 to February 2024 period.
· Fiji usually experiences below normal rainfall during an El Niño event.
· The model predictions for later part of the year at this time have lower accuracy. Thus, it is difficult to ascertain with accuracy the ENSO state for later half of the year;
· Fiji Met Service will continue to monitor the ENSO conditions closely and provide updates accordingly.
ENSO Update JULY 2023
Generally wetter than normal conditions were observed at most of the rainfall recording stations during the month. Vunisea, Ono-Lau, Seaqaqa and Labasa Airport were the only exceptions, which experienced suppressed rainfall.
Overall, out of the 26 rainfall monitoring stations that reported in, in time for the compilation of bulletin, 2 recorded well above average rainfall, 12 recorded above average, 8 average, and 4 stations with below average rainfall (Table 2, Figures 1-5).
The highest monthly rainfall of 517.9mm was observed at Rotuma, followed by Monasavu with 286.2mm, Navua and RKS Lodoni both with 272.5mm, Yasawa-i-Rara with 237.7mm, Laucala Bay (Suva) with 234.3mm, Korolevuwith 230.5mm, Nasinu with 226.0mm, Koronivia with211.6mm, and Nausori Airport with 184.8.
Yasawa-i-Rara recorded its new highest July daily rainfallof 95.8mm, since observations began in 1950 (Table 1).
On temperatures, the highest day-time temperature of 33.4°C was observed at RKS Lodoni on the 2nd , followed by Keiyasi with 33.1°C on the 8th, Levuka and Labasa Airfield both with 33.0°C on the 7th and 8th, respectively, Yasawa-iRara with 32.5°C on the 9th, and Seaqaqa with 32.3°C on the 8th.
Nausori Airport recorded its lowest daily maximum temperature of 21.0°C since observations began in 1950 (Table 1).
The lowest night time temperature of 9.5°C was recorded at Nadarivatu on the 1st, followed by Monasavu with 12.4°C on the 2nd, Keiyasi with 13.7°C on the 27th, Lomaivuna with 14.2°C on the 30th, and Sigatoka with 14.4°C on the 29th.
Southeasterly winds were dominant at both Nadi Airport and Nausori Airport during July (Figure 7).
Warmer than normal sea surface temperature anomalies were observed across most of the country during the month (Figure 8).
Above normal sea level anomalies persisted across most of the Fiji Waters during July 2023 (Figure 10).
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