The following are provided by the Fiji Meteorological Service: Check their website for any current warnings or alerts.
A La Niña Watch is currently in place, with a weak La Niña likely to develop between November 2025 and January 2026. This typically means wetter conditions for Fiji during the wet season.
Rainfall Outlook
November 2025: Most of Fiji (Western, Central, Northern and Eastern Divisions) is likely to receive normal or above normal rainfall. Rotuma has no strong guidance (equal chance of below, normal, or above normal).
Nov 2025 – Jan 2026: Above normal rainfall is likely across all of Fiji, including Rotuma.
Feb – Apr 2026: Most of Fiji is expected to have normal or above normal rainfall, while Rotuma again shows no strong leaning.
Temperature Outlook
Both day and night temperatures are likely to remain above normal across Fiji through November, and also for the November to January period.
Key Takeaway
As Fiji shifts toward La Niña conditions, above average rainfall is expected over the coming wet season, alongside warmer than usual temperatures.
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ENSO Status: Conditions are currently neutral, but there is a slight chance of La Niña developing towards the end of the year.
Sea Surface Temperatures: Above normal SSTs are likely around Fiji from November 2025 to January 2026.
SPCZ Position: The warm 29°C convergence zone is expected to shift south, sitting closer to Fiji’s EEZ. This can influence tuna availability and fishing activity.
Coral Bleaching: Waters around Rotuma are at ‘Watch’ level for the next 8–12 weeks (low-level stress possible).
Sea Level: Below normal sea levels are likely across most of Fiji, while Rotuma can expect near normal sea levels during November–January.
Chlorophyll: High concentrations were observed around parts of Viti Levu, Vanua Levu and the Eastern Division in September, which may indicate good fishing areas but can also signal algal bloom or reef health risks.
Tides: The highest astronomical tides of the year occur in early November, with peak heights varying by port.
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El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Status:
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October’s rainfall reflected the dry season. Most places in the Western, Central and Eastern Divisions, as well as Rotuma, were drier than usual. The Northern Division had mostly normal to above normal rainfall. Of the 25 monitoring stations, only 1 recorded above average rainfall, while the majority recorded below to well below average. The highest total was at Monasavu (371.7mm).
Daytime temperatures were hot, with the warmest average at Momi (34.4°C) and the hottest single day also at Momi (37.0°C). The coolest night was at Nadarivatu (11.6°C).
Winds were mainly southeasterly at Nadi, Matei, and Savusavu, and easterly at Nausori. Sea surface temperatures across Fiji waters were near to above normal, and above normal sea levels continued.
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