The following are provided by the Fiji Meteorological Service: Check their website for any current warnings or alerts.
· 5 to 7 tropical cyclones (TCs) could occur in the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre- Nadi (RSMC-Nadi) Tropical Cyclone Centre (TCC) Area of Responsibility (AoR) between November 2022 to April 2023.
· Within the RSMC-Nadi TCC AoR, 3 to 6 tropical cyclones or average to above average cyclone activity is expected West of the International Date Line, while 2 to 4 tropical cyclones or average cyclone activity is expected to the East of the International Dateline.
· For the coming season, 1 to 4 tropical cyclones are anticipated to reach or exceed Category 3 strength, in the RSMC-Nadi TCC AoR.
· The La Nina phase has returned and remains active in the region which is a key factor in the tropical cyclone outlook. This is the 3rd consecutive year that the tropical cyclone season has occurred during a La Nina phase. La Nina is expected to continue until the end of 2022.
· The peak period for the tropical cyclone season in the RMSC-Nadi TCC AoR is usually between January to February.
· While the tropical cyclone season is between November to April, occasionally cyclones have formed in the region in October and May and rarely in September and June. Therefore, an out-of-season tropical cyclone activity cannot be totally ruled out.
· Tropical disturbances and depressions that do not attain tropical cyclone intensity or low-pressure systems as a result of decaying cyclones, can still cause strong winds/gusts, widespread rainfall, landslides, and potential flooding.
· Due to widespread flooding, there is also the potential for the outbreak of waterborne diseases in the local communities, as previously experienced during post-flooding events.
· With the current La Niña event and increasing chances of above-average rainfall, there are also chances of coastal inundation to be experienced.
· 2 to 3 total tropical cyclones are likely to pass through Fiji’s Exclusive Economic Zone during the 2022-23 tropical cyclone season.
· 1 to 2 tropical cyclones are likely to reach severe category (Category 3-5) during the season.
· Most of the past tropical cyclones during La Niña Tropical Cyclone seasons have approached the Fiji Group from the northwest quadrant. Therefore, there will be elevated risks for the Western Division this season.
· With the recent re-establishment of a La Niña event and chances of it continuing until year-end, there is a high chance of receiving above-average rainfall, which may lead to flooding across the Fiji Group, during the TC Season.
· While the tropical cyclone season is between November to April, occasionally cyclones have formed in the region in October and May and rarely in September and June. Therefore, an out-of-season tropical cyclone activity cannot be ruled out.
· Tropical disturbances or depressions that do not attain TC intensity or low-pressure systems that are a result of decaying cyclones, can still cause widespread rainfall and potential flooding.
· All communities should remain alert and prepared throughout the 2022/23 TC Season and please do take heed of any TC warnings and advisories, to mitigate the impact on life and properties.
The Tropical Cyclone Seasonal Outlook report can also be accessed using the following link: https://www.met.gov.fj/index.php?page=tcoutlook
TC_Seasonal_Outlook_2022-23_ Fiji report.pdf
TC_Seasonal_Outlook_2022-23_ Detailed report.pdf
TC_Seasonal_Outlook_2022-23_RSMC-Nadi.pdf
FIJI CLIMATE OUTLOOK FEBRUARY 2023; FEBRUARY TO APRIL 2023; MAY TO JULY 2023
• Rainfall during February 2023 is likely to be above normal for the Western Division, with near-normal or above-normal rainfall expected for the rest of the country. There is little guidance for Rotuma with almost equal chances of below-normal, near-normal, and above-normal rainfall.
• For February to April 2023 season, normal or above normal rainfall is likely across the country, while normal or below normal rainfall is favored for Rotuma.
• During May to July 2023 season, normal or above normal rainfall is likely across the Fiji Group, while there is little guidance for Rotuma with almost equal chances of below normal, near normal, and above normal rainfall.
• The air temperatures are likely to be above normal across the country during February 2023, as well as February to April 2023 season.
• A weak La Niña event continues to persist in the tropical Pacific Ocean.
• Climate models on average suggest a return to ENSO-neutral conditions from February to April 2023.
• Despite the likely easing of the La Niña event, its impact on Fiji is likely to continue over the next couple of months due to lag effects.
READ FULL REPORT – FIJI CLIMATE OUTLOOK FEBRUARY 2023
· A weak La Niña continues to persist in the tropical Pacific Ocean.
· Near normal or above normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are likely in Fiji Waters during February to April 2023.
· The average position of the 29°C fisheries convergence zone is likely to lie south of the Fiji Group during the February to April 2023 period.
· The 12 weeks coral bleaching outlook is at ‘Alert 2’ for majority of the Fiji Waters, with the outlook for 8 weeks at ‘Alert 1’.
· Sea level is likely to be above normal across most of Fiji’s EEZ during the February to April 2023 period. The highest astronomical tide of the year will be on the January 22nd.
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Rainfall Status to January 2023:
· At 3-month timescale, Seriously Wet conditions exist for Kadavu and Ono-i-Lau, Very Wet conditions exist for Nadi, Nacocolevu, Mamanuca Group and Vatulele, Very Dry condotions exist for Taveuni, while No Alert is in place for the rest of the Fiji Group.
Seriously Dry conditions exist for Rotuma.
· At 6-month timescale, Seriously Wet conditions exist for Kadavu and Ono-i-Lau, Very Wet conditions exist for Ba, Lautoka, Nadi, Nacocolevu, Mamanuca Group, Vatulele and parts of the southern Lau Group, while No Alert is in place for the rest of the Fiji Group.
Seriously Dry conditions exist for Rotuma.
· At the 12-month timescale, Seriously Wet conditions exist for the Mamanuca Group, Nacocolevu, southern Viti Levu and Ono-i-Lau, Very Wet conditions persists for the southern Yasawa Group, Dobuilevu, Penang, Tavua, Ba, Lautoka, Nadi, Gau and parts of the southern Lau Group, while No Alert is in place for the rest of the Fiji Group.
Serously Dry conditions exist for Rotuma.
Rainfall Outlook:
· For the last two weeks of February, there is medium chance of Very Wet conditions for most parts of western Viti Levu, Mamanuca Group, Labasa, Udu Point, Lakeba, and parts of southern Lau Group. There is a medium chance of Very Dry conditions for Rotuma.
· For February, there is a high chance of Very Wet condtions for the Mamanuca Group, Lakeba, Matuku and southern Lau Group. There is a medium chance of Very Wet conditions across Central and Nothern Divisions , most parts of the Western Division, Kadavu, Lomaiviti Group and Ono-i-Lau.
· For February to April 2023, there is a high chance of Very Wet conditions for the Mamanuca Group, Ba, Lautoka Nadi, Nacocolevu, Ono-i-Lau and southern Lau Group. There is a meduim chance of Very Wet conditions across Northern and Central Divisions,Yasawa-i-Rara, Dobuilevu, Penang, Tavua, interior parts of western Vili Levu, Kadavu, Vatulele, Lomaiviti Group, Vanuabalvu, Lakeba, and Matuku.
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Status: La Niña.
· At a 3-month timescale, Seriously Wet conditions exist for Viwa, Nacocolevu, Kadavu, Matuku, and Ono-i-Lau, Very Wet conditions exist for most parts of the Western Division, Navua, and parts of the southern Lau Group, while No Alert is in place for the rest of the Fiji Group. Very Dry conditions exist for Rotuma.
· At a 6-month timescale, Seriously Wet conditions exist for Kadavu and Ono-i-Lau, Very Wet conditions exist for Nacocolevu, Nadi, Lautoka, Ba, Matuku, and parts of the southern Lau Group and No Alert is in place for the rest of the Fiji Group. Seriously Dry conditions exist for Rotuma.
· At the 12-month timescale, Seriously Wet conditions exist for most parts of the Western Division, Kadavu, Matuku, Lomaiviti Group, and Ono-i-Lau, Very Wet conditions persist for parts of the Northern Division, Navua, Viwa, Yasawa-i-Rara, Vanuabalavu, and Lakeba, while No Alert is in place for the rest of the Fiji Group. Very Dry conditions exist for Rotuma.
Rainfall Outlook:
· For the last two weeks in January, there is a medium chance of Very Wet conditions across the Western and Northern Divisions, most parts of the Eastern Division, and Rotuma.
· For January, there is a high chance of Very Wet conditions for the Mamanuca Group. There is a medium chance of Very Wet conditions for most parts of the Western and Northern Divisions, Kadavu, and southern Lau Group. There is a medium chance of Very Dry conditions for Rotuma.
· For January to March 2023, there is a high chance of Very Wet conditions for the Mamanuca Group, Nacocolevu, and Ono-i-Lau. There is a medium chance of Very Wet conditions for most parts of Viti Levu, Mamanuca, and Yasawa Group, southern Vanua Levu, Beqa, Vatulele, Kadavu, and the Lau Group. There is a medium chance of Very Dry conditions for Rotuma.
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Status: La Niña.
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· A weak La Niña event continues to persist in the tropical Pacific.
· The La Niña event is expected to weaken to ENSO neutral state (neither El Niño nor La Niña) through the February to April 2023 period.
· While the ENSO-neutral state is favored to continue for the rest of the 1st half of the year, there is great uncertainty in the ENSO state for the latter.
· Fiji usually experiences above-normal rainfall during a La Niña event, which can lead to flooding, especially during the wet season, which is from November to April.
READ FULL REPORT – ENSO UPDATE JANUARY 2023
Typical La Niña event rainfall pattern continued to be observed at most parts of the country during the month.
During January , active convergence zones, troughs of low pressure, moist northwesterly and easterly winds and the rain bands were dominant, contributing to wetter than normal conditions observed at most parts of the country. Generally average to above average rainfall was recorded during the month. There were two (2) episodes of flash flooding recorded during the month.
Overall, out of the 25 rainfall monitoring stations that recorded in, in time for the compilation of bulletin, 1 recorded well below average rainfall, 8 below average, 9 average, 6 above average, and 1 recorded well above average rainfall (Table 2, Figures 1-5).
The highest monthly rainfall of 729.9mm was observed at Rarawai Mill, followed by Nadi Airport with 711.9mm, Nadarivatu with 611.5mm, Keiyasi with 555.5mm, Nacocolevu with 524.5mm, Sigatoka with 513.5mm, Momi with 491.5mm and Penang Mill with 490.5mm,
On temperatures, the highest day-time temperature of 36.9°C was recorded at Korolevu on the 10th , followed by Wainikoro with 36.6°C on the 5th, Levuka with 36.4°C on the 29th and Yasawa-i-Rara with 36.0°C on the 31st.
The coolest night-time temperature of 16.7°C was recorded at Nadarivatu on the 29th, followed by Monasavu with 17.9°C on the 17th, Rarawai Mill (Ba) with 19.6°C on the 15th and Savusavu Airfield with 20.4°C on the 28th.
South-easterly winds were dominant at Nadi Airport while north-westerly winds were the most observed winds at Nausori Airport during January (Figure 8).
Warmer than normal sea surface temperature anomalies were observed across most of the Fiji Group during the month (Figure 9).
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