Fiji Weather Updates

The following are provided by the Fiji Meteorological Service: Check their website for any current warnings or alerts.

RSMC Tropical Cyclone Seasonal Outlook Key Messages:

· 5 to 7 tropical cyclones (TCs) could occur in the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre- Nadi (RSMC-Nadi) Tropical Cyclone Centre (TCC) Area of Responsibility (AoR) between November 2022 to April 2023.

· Within the RSMC-Nadi TCC AoR, 3 to 6 tropical cyclones or average to above average cyclone activity is expected West of the International Date Line, while 2 to 4 tropical cyclones or average cyclone activity is expected to the East of the International Dateline.

· For the coming season, 1 to 4 tropical cyclones are anticipated to reach or exceed Category 3 strength, in the RSMC-Nadi TCC AoR.

· The La Nina phase has returned and remains active in the region which is a key factor in the tropical cyclone outlook. This is the 3rd consecutive year that the tropical cyclone season has occurred during a La Nina phase. La Nina is expected to continue until the end of 2022.

Other Relevant Information:

· The peak period for the tropical cyclone season in the RMSC-Nadi TCC AoR is usually between January to February.

· While the tropical cyclone season is between November to April, occasionally cyclones have formed in the region in October and May and rarely in September and June. Therefore, an out-of-season tropical cyclone activity cannot be totally ruled out.

· Tropical disturbances and depressions that do not attain tropical cyclone intensity or low-pressure systems as a result of decaying cyclones, can still cause strong winds/gusts, widespread rainfall, landslides and potential flooding.

· Due to widespread flooding, there is also the potential for the outbreak of waterborne diseases in the local communities, as previously experienced during post-flooding events.

· With the current La Niña event and increasing chances of above-average rainfall, there are also chances of coastal inundation to be experienced.

Fiji Tropical Cyclone Outlook Key Messages:

· 2 to 3 total tropical cyclones are likely to pass through Fiji’s Exclusive Economic Zone during the 2022-23 tropical cyclone season.

· 1 to 2 tropical cyclones are likely to reach severe category (Category 3-5) during the season.

· Most of the past tropical cyclones during La Niña Tropical Cyclone seasons have approached the Fiji Group from the northwest quadrant. Therefore, there will be elevated risks for the Western Division this season.

· With the recent re-establishment of a La Niña event and chances of it continuing until year-end, there is a high chance of receiving above-average rainfall, which may lead to flooding across the Fiji Group, during the TC Season.

· While the tropical cyclone season is between November to April, occasionally cyclones have formed in the region in October and May and rarely in September and June. Therefore, an out-of-season tropical cyclone activity cannot be ruled out.

· Tropical disturbances or depressions that do not attain TC intensity or low-pressure systems that are a result of decaying cyclones, can still cause widespread rainfall and potential flooding.

· All communities should remain alert and prepared throughout the 2022/23 TC Season and please do take heed of any TC warnings and advisories, to mitigate the impact on life and properties.

The Tropical Cyclone Seasonal Outlook report can also be accessed using the following link: https://www.met.gov.fj/index.php?page=tcoutlook

TC_Seasonal_Outlook_2022-23_ Fiji report.pdf
TC_Seasonal_Outlook_2022-23_ Detailed report.pdf
TC_Seasonal_Outlook_2022-23_RSMC-Nadi.pdf

Fiji Climate Outlook for December 2022

• Rainfall during December 2022 is likely to be above normal across the country, while near-normal or above-normal rainfall is favoured for Rotuma.
• For December 2022 to February 2023 season, above-normal rainfall is likely across the country.
• During March to May 2023 season, above normal, is favoured for the Western Division, and near normal or above normal for the rest of the country, while there is little guidance for Rotuma with almost equal chances of below normal, near normal and above normal rainfall.
• The air temperatures are likely to be above normal across the country during December 2022, as well as December 2022 to February 2023 season.
• A weak La Niña event continues to persist in the tropical Pacific Ocean.
• Climate models on average suggest the continuation of the La Niña event through to January to March 2023 and then return to neutral conditions from February to April 2023.
• Fiji usually experiences above-normal rainfall during a La Niña event, which can lead to flooding, especially during the wet season from November to April.

READ FULL REPORT – FIJI CLIMATE OUTLOOK DECEMBER 2022

Fiji Ocean Outlook for October 2022
In Brief
· La Niña continues to persist in the tropical Pacific Ocean.

· Above normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are likely to be observed within the Fiji Waters from November 2022 to January 2023.

· The average position of the 29°C convergence zone is likely to be displaced south of its normal position, closer to Fiji’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) from November 2022 to January 2023.

· The 8 weeks coral bleaching outlook is at ‘Warning’ for Rotuma and surrounding waters, with ‘Watch’ for waters around Viti Levu and Vanua Levu. The 12 weeks outlook, is at ‘Watch’ across the Fiji Waters.

· Sea level is likely to be above normal across most of Fiji’s EEZ during November 2022 to January 2023 period.
READ FULL REPORT

Early Action Rainfall Watch for October 2022
In Brief
Rainfall Status to September 2022:

· Seriously Dry conditions exist for Monasavu and parts of Tavua, while Very Dry conditions persist for Nacocolevu, Nadi, Lautoka, Ba, Nabouwalu, Savusavu, Seaqaqa, Rotuma and interior parts of Viti Levu at the 3-month timescale.

· At the 6-month timescale, Seriously Dry conditions exist for Monasavu, while Very Dry conditions persist for Rotuma and the interior parts of Viti Levu and Vanua Levu.

· Seriously Wet conditions exist for Nacocolevu, Nadi, Lautoka, Ba, Tavua, Penang, Dobuilevu, Kadavu and Gau Island. In contrast, Very Wet conditions persist for Viwa, Yasawa Group, Nabouwalu, Labasa, Udu Point, Matuku, Ono-i-Lau and parts of Lomaiviti Group at the 12-month timescale.

Rainfall Outlook:

· For the last two weeks in October, there is a high chance of Very Wet conditions across the Fiji Group. There is a high chance of Very Dry conditions at Rotuma.

· For October, there is a very high chance of Very Wet conditions across the Western Division, Viwa, Yasawa Group, Nabouwalu, Lakeba, Matuku, Kadavu, Ono-i-Lau and parts of southern Lau Group. There is a high chance of Very Wet conditions for the Central Division, Savusavu, Labasa, Seaqaqa, Udu Point, Taveuni and Vanuabalavu. There is a high chance of Very Dry conditions at Rotuma.

· For October to December 2022, there is a very high chance of Very Wet conditions for the whole of Viti Levu, most of Vanua Levu, Viwa, Yasawa Group, Lomaiviti Group, Lakeba, Matuku, Kadavu, Ono-i-Lau and southern Lau Group. For the rest of the Fiji Group, there is a high chance of Very Wet conditions, except for Rotuma, which has a medium chance of Very Dry conditions.

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Status: La Niña.

READ FULL REPORT

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Update – September 2022

· A weak La Niña event continues to persist in the tropical Pacific.

· Most of the global climate models predict a continuation of the La Niña event through to the January to March 2023 period.

· However, the event is expected to progressively weaken to a neutral-ENSO state during February to April 2023 period.

· The current event is likely to peak as a weak La Niña.

· Fiji usually experiences above-normal rainfall during a La Niña event, which can lead to flooding, especially during the wet season, which is from November to April.

READ FULL REPORT – ENSO UPDATE NOVEMBER 2022

Fiji Climate Summary for September 2022

Generally, cool and dry conditions were experienced across Fiji during the month, with very low rainfall and cool temperatures observed in various parts of the country. However, rain was observed on a few occasions due to the passage of troughs of low-pressure systems and broad southeast trade winds.
Drier than usual conditions were experienced at Rotuma, Yasawa-i-Rara, Nadi, Lautoka, Tavua, Yaqara, Laucala Bay, Seaqaqa, Labasa, Lakeba and Matuku. However, the rest of the country received an average


READ FULL REPORT