Tropical Depression TD04F remains very slow moving to the northwest of the Yasawa Islands and slowly intensifies. At 3pm the centre was about 350km northwest of Nadi and while there has been some strengthening of the winds near the centre as pressure falls, it is still not yet a tropical cyclone.
Upper level weather processes are restricting the development, and while conditions are expected to become more favourable for strengthening in the next 24 hours it is most likely that a Category 1 Tropical Cyclone is about the strongest this system will become, and that will likely occur tomorrow.
Meanwhile rain continues heavy at times over Fiji, although there are wide variations in the accumulations from reports provided this morning. Once again south and east Viti Levu saw the highest falls – Nausori Airport reported 237mm in the 24 hours to 9am this morning, while Suva reported 186 mm and Koronivia reported 155 mm, About the west rainfall was more modest – just 35 mm at Lautoka, 27 mm at Ba and 20 mm at Nadi Airport. Currently, winds remain onshore from the east which is why those locations around Suva have seen the heaviest rain. As winds tend more northerly tonight and tomorrow rain will start to increase around the west.
The most recent forecast keeps the centre offshore tomorrow as it passes just to the west of Fiji. This system is unlikely to become anything stronger than a Category 1 cyclone at this stage, but because it is moving so slowly and its future path after moving away from Fiji being a little uncertain, it is not possible to rule out a stronger system.
This depression / TC is one of several predicted to develop in this burst of monsoon weather around the south-west Pacific. There is a high possibility that other lows will develop, but where and when is not yet very clear. It is important to stay alert over the next week or two as we move into the holiday period where people tend to focus on festivities – don’t be caught by surprise if new weather systems develop in the Christmas to New Year period.
Sincerely,
