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Highlights:
ENSO-neutral conditions continue to persist in the tropical Pacific Ocean.
During June 2024, normal or below normal rainfall is likely across the Fiji Group, while normal or above normal rainfall is favored for Rotuma.
For June to August 2024 period, normal or below normal rainfall is likely for the Fiji Group, while normal or above normal rainfall is favored for Rotuma.
During September to November 2024, normal or above normal rainfall is likely across the Fiji Group.
On June 2024 temperatures, both maximum and minimum temperatures are likely to be above normal across the Fiji Group.
For June to August 2024, both maximum and minimum temperatures are likely to be above normal across the Fiji Group.
ENSO-neutral conditions are likely to persist until at least July 2024, with a transition to La Niña state likely during August to October 2024 period.
During neutral ENSO conditions, Fiji generally experiences average rainfall. However, local weather systems and lingering effects of previous El Niño event can still cause variations, especially during the dry season.
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The current El Niño event continues, nearing its end with a transition to an ENSO-neutral state likely during April to June 2024
Above normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are likely across most of Fiji Waters during April to June 2024.
The average position of the 29°C convergence zone is likely to be displaced south of its normal position, close to Fiji’s EEZ, during the April 2024 to June 2024 period.
The 4 weeks coral bleaching outlook is at ‘Alert Level 2’ across most of the Eastern and Northern Divisions, with ‘Warning’ for parts of Bligh Waters.
Sea level is likely to be below normal for the northern half of Fiji’s EEZ, while near normal anomalies is likely across the rest of Fiji’s EEZ, during April to June 2024 period.
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Highlights:
Rainfall Status until May 2024:
For 3-month timescale, Seriously Wet conditions exist for Navua, Beqa, Vatulele, Kadavu, parts of Lomaiviti Group, Natewa coastal areas, Lakeba, Ono-i-Lau and southern parts of Lau Group. Very Wet conditions exist from Rakiraki to Sigatoka corridor along the coast, Viwa, Yasawa-i-Rara, RKS Lodoni, Koronivia, Nausori, Suva, Nabouwalu, Labasa, Seaqaqa, Udu Point, Taveuni and Rabi, while there are No Extreme conditions in place for the rest of the Fiji Group.
At the 6-month timescale, Seriously Wet conditions exist for Kadavu, parts of Lomaiviti Group, Matuku and Moala. Very Wet conditions exist for Koronivia, Nausori, Suva, Natewa coastal areas, Koro, Taveuni and parts of southern Lau Group while there are No Extreme conditions in place for the rest of the Fiji Group.
On the 12-month timescale, Seriously Wet conditions exist for parts of Lomaiviti Group and Moala. Very Wet conditions exist for RKS Lodoni, Koronivia, Nausori, Suva, Navua, Beqa, Kadavu, and parts of southern Lau Group, while there are No Extreme conditions in place for the rest of the Fiji Group.
Rainfall Outlook:
From 15th to 28th June, there is a medium chance of Very Dry conditions across Western, Central, Northern and Eastern Divisions. There is No Extreme conditions in place for Rotuma.
For June, there is a high chance of Very Dry conditions across the Fiji Group. There is No Extreme conditions in place for Rotuma.
For June to August 2024, there is a medium chance of Very Dry conditions across Western and Central Divisions and most parts of the Northern Division. There is a medium chance of Very Wet conditions for Rotuma. There is No Extreme conditions in place for rest of the Fiji Group.
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Status: ENSO-neutral
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El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Status:
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In Brief
ENSO-neutral conditions continue to persist in the tropical Pacific Ocean.
Sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific is likely to continue to cool in the coming months.
ENSO-neutral conditions are likely to persist until at least July 2024, with a transition to La Niña state likely during August to October 2024 period.
During neutral ENSO conditions, Fiji generally experiences average rainfall. However, local weather systems and lingering effects of previous El Niño event can still cause variations, especially during the dry season.
Fiji Met Service will continue to monitor the ENSO conditions closely and provide updates accordingly.
ENSO Update
Variable rainfall patterns were observed during May, with rainfall ranging from well below average to well above average across the country. The majority of stations in the Western Division, Seaqaqa, Vunisea, and Matuku experienced drier than usual conditions. Rarawai Mill (Ba), Yaqara, Viwa, Yasawa-i-Rara, Seaqaqa, Vunisea, and Matuku recorded less than half of their normal monthly rainfall, while Udu Point, Savusavu Air field, and Ono-i-Lau recorded more than twice their nor mal monthly rainfall.
Overall, out of the 27 rainfall monitoring stations that reported in, in time for the compilation of bulletin, 5 recorded well below average rainfall, 5 below average, 3 average rainfall, 11 above average, and 3 stations with well above average (Table 2, Figures 1-5).
RKS Lodoni recorded the highest monthly rainfall of 553.0mm, followed by Savusavu Airfield with 535.8mm, Monasavu with 533.9mm, Rotuma with 425.0mm, Udu Point with 423.5mm, Navua with 417.5mm, Lomaivuna with 412.5mm, Nausori Airport with 402.7mm, Koronivia with 372.7mm, and Korolevu with 360.5mm.(Table 2).
On temperatures, the month’s warmest day-time temper ature of 35.7°C was observed at RKS Lodoni on the 20th, followed by Navua with 35.6°C on the 20th, Seaqaqa with 35.0°C on the 1st, Rarawai Mill (Ba) with 34.5°C on the 2nd , and Matuku with 34.2°C on the 21st. The month’s coolest night-time temperature of 11.0°C was recorded at Rarawai Mill (Ba) on the 12th, followed by Monsavu with 12.6°C on the 11th, Lomaivuna with 14.5°C on the 10th, Labasa Airport with 14.7°C on the 11th, and Seaqaqa with 15.3°C on the 11th.
Southeasterly winds were dominant at Nadi Airport, Nausori Airport, Savusavu Airfield, Matei Airfield (Figure 7).
Warmer than normal sea surface temperature anomalies were observed at most parts of the country (Figure 8).
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