The following are provided by the Fiji Meteorological Service: Check their website for any current warnings or alerts.
Highlights:
A La Niña Watch is currently in place, with ENSO indicators showing signs of likely chances of development of a weak La Niña in the coming months.
During December 2024, above normal rainfall is likely across the Fiji Group, while there is little guidance provided for Rotuma, with almost equal chances of below normal, normal and above normal rainfall.
For December 2024 to February 2025 period, above normal rainfall is likely across the Fiji Group, as well as Rotuma.
During March to May 2025, normal or above normal rainfall is likely across the Fiji Group, while there is little guidance provided for Rotuma, as there is almost equal chances of below normal, normal and above normal rainfall.
On December temperatures, both day and night time temperatures are likely to be above normal across the Fiji Group.
For December 2024 to February 2025 period, both day and night time temperatures are likely to be above normal across the Fiji Group.
ENSO-neutral conditions are likely to transition to a weak La Niña state during December 2024 to February 2025 period.
As Fiji is now into its Wet Season, the country is likely to start experiencing wetter conditions.
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ENSO is currently neutral, with ENSO indicators showing signs of likely chances of development of a weak La Niña during December 2024 to February 2025.
Above normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are likely across most of Fiji Waters during December 2024 to February 2025.
The average position of the 29°C South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) is likely to be displaced south of its normal position, closer to Fiji Group, during the December 2024 to February 2025 period.
The 12 weeks coral bleaching outlook is at ‘Watch’ level for most of the Fiji Waters.
Below normal sea level is likely for northern parts of Fiji’s EEZ, while near normal sea level is likely for the rest of the Fiji Group, during the December to February 2025 period.
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Highlights:
Rainfall Status until October 2024:
On 3-month timescale, Very Dry conditions exist in parts of Bua, parts of Labasa, and in Rotuma, Seriously Wet conditions exist in Ono (Kadavu), Very Wet conditions exist for Vatulele and Kadavu, while there are No Extreme conditions in place for the rest of the Fiji Group.
For the 6-month timescale, Very Dry conditions exist in parts of Bua, parts of Labasa, and in Monasavu, while there are No Extreme alert in place for the rest of the Fiji Group.
On 12-month timescale, Very Wet conditions exist for areas south of Kadavu, parts of Lomaiviti Group and Moala, while there are No Extreme alert in place for the rest of the Fiji Group.
Rainfall Outlook:
For 15th to 28th November, there is a medium chance of Very Wet conditions for parts of Labasa, Udu Point, Lomaiviti Group, Koro, Matuku, Rabi and Ono-i-Lau. There is No Extreme conditions in place for rest of the Fiji Group.
For November, there is a medium chance of Very Wet conditions for Korovou, Nabouwalu, Savusavu, Lomaiviti Group, Koro, Moala Group and Ono-i-Lau. There is No Extreme conditions in place for rest of the Fiji Group.
For November 2024 to January 2025, there is a medium chance of Very Wet conditions for Western and Central Divisions, Nabouwalu, Kadavu, Gau, Nairai Island and Ono-i-Lau. There is No Extreme conditions in place for rest of the Fiji Group.
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Status: La Niña Watch in place
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El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Status:
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In Brief
ENSO neutral conditions continues to persist in the tropical Pacific Ocean.
Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific are likely to reach or exceed the La Niña threshold in the coming months.
ENSO-neutral state is likely to transition to a weak La Nina state during December 2024 to February 2025 period.
During a La Niña event, Fiji generally experiences above average rainfall.
Fiji Met Service will continue to closely monitor ENSO conditions and provide updates ac-cordingly.
ENSO Update
Variable rainfall patterns were observed during May, with rainfall ranging from well below average to well above average across the country. The majority of stations in the Western Division, Seaqaqa, Vunisea, and Matuku experienced drier than usual conditions. Rarawai Mill (Ba), Yaqara, Viwa, Yasawa-i-Rara, Seaqaqa, Vunisea, and Matuku recorded less than half of their normal monthly rainfall, while Udu Point, Savusavu Air field, and Ono-i-Lau recorded more than twice their nor mal monthly rainfall.
Overall, out of the 27 rainfall monitoring stations that reported in, in time for the compilation of bulletin, 5 recorded well below average rainfall, 5 below average, 3 average rainfall, 11 above average, and 3 stations with well above average (Table 2, Figures 1-5).
RKS Lodoni recorded the highest monthly rainfall of 553.0mm, followed by Savusavu Airfield with 535.8mm, Monasavu with 533.9mm, Rotuma with 425.0mm, Udu Point with 423.5mm, Navua with 417.5mm, Lomaivuna with 412.5mm, Nausori Airport with 402.7mm, Koronivia with 372.7mm, and Korolevu with 360.5mm.(Table 2).
On temperatures, the month’s warmest day-time temper ature of 35.7°C was observed at RKS Lodoni on the 20th, followed by Navua with 35.6°C on the 20th, Seaqaqa with 35.0°C on the 1st, Rarawai Mill (Ba) with 34.5°C on the 2nd , and Matuku with 34.2°C on the 21st. The month’s coolest night-time temperature of 11.0°C was recorded at Rarawai Mill (Ba) on the 12th, followed by Monsavu with 12.6°C on the 11th, Lomaivuna with 14.5°C on the 10th, Labasa Airport with 14.7°C on the 11th, and Seaqaqa with 15.3°C on the 11th.
Southeasterly winds were dominant at Nadi Airport, Nausori Airport, Savusavu Airfield, Matei Airfield (Figure 7).
Warmer than normal sea surface temperature anomalies were observed at most parts of the country (Figure 8).
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